Let’s start with Lillard first.

Starting from the summer of 21, when talking about the trading market, you have to take a look at Portland first. Lillard has been in this for some years, and the situation has changed for so many years. Except for the iron triangle of warriors, there are only two pioneers and Wizards left in the alliance that have not changed the flag. The pioneer got a set of matches that knew it was impossible to succeed at a glance, and then he swooped all the way under the leadership of Billups and took the flower exploration sign. OK, Suncha 2.0 trial and error completed. Portland seems to be worse, but in fact it has accumulated assets and completed its storage. More importantly, they welcomed the reverse version of Lillard.

In 2027, 37-year-old Lillard would take 63.2 million, which seemed to be a ghost story, but now you don’t need to worry so far. The Blazers failed to make the playoffs, and the latter half of the season almost disappeared in the attention list, so many people failed to notice that Lillard secretly played the first three games of the league. He is still the terrorist killer, which reminds people of his state of scoring 55 points in the playoffs-who is the opponent? This is the test site. The Blazers should feel at ease for a while. Under the influence of injuries, Lillard in the 21-22 season was just an accident, and he is still at the peak now.

Lillard has completed all the expected big contracts and has no need to think about money. If Lillard had changed the championship team to start again now, he had not lost any money in his whole career. Lillard didn’t say he had to win the championship. For the cost of leaving the team, he was sober in the world. After all, he had set up flag and was afraid that he could not get aggressive momentum towards the management. Portland has locked the selection right to 2028, and its attitude is clear-we rely on salary and affection to keep people, and we can’t afford to sacrifice this kind of operation of the team in the future. We have to tell you first.

Lillard didn’t burst up at that time, at least it showed that he was prepared to stay in Portland and couldn’t compete for the championship-of course, if the plan was to take the big contract first and then find a way out, that is to say, but at least so far, Li guidance is not that kind of person.

Things have changed a little. Even if the future picks are not used, the Pioneers also have some young assets that can be used to make up the strength. They have a signature of No. 3, with anfinny Simmons (next season 24.1 million, contract to 2026) and sharp. Compared with the operation of abandoning CJ and Powell to break the east wall and supplement the west wall at the beginning, the increase of this wave of young assets in the hands into combat capability is undoubtedly greater. Blazers also have the opportunity to use this wave of operation to completely get rid of the deformed Suncha model. If they still build a team around Lillard, there seems to be no reason not to make a deal.

Conversely, if the pioneers want to rebuild completely, they can withdraw at any time. The first round of signing for the bull was lotto protection that lasted for many years. The initiative was entirely on their own side, and their assets were in the middle of the season and they did not worry about selling.

The draft convention is the first key node. If the Blazers send off their 3-sign, other teams will not need to miss Lillard for the time being. The team that wants the Pioneer 3 signature is indispensable. The key here is the Raptors and Wizards.

Raptors and wizards, two teams that have always been rotten and do not recognize the real team, holding awkward orders (Raptors signed on 13 and Wizards signed on 8), the first round of signing next year is not completely in their own hands (the Raptors gave Spurs to the first round of 24 years in the Peltel transaction, and the first six orders were protected. The Wizards will be in the hands of Knicks next year, first 12 sequence protection). Of course, if the Raptors don’t have a bottom line, they have a great chance to keep the first round, and the Wizards will not lose this sign without pursuing the play-off. But I always have a foreboding about the ranking of the two teams in the draft:

In recent years, Raptors always do some operations of “rebellious public opinion” before the transaction deadline. When people think they will become sellers, they just want to become buyers. However, with the foundation of the Raptors, it is hard for you to imagine that this group of people can be rotten without a bottom line without sending away two key puzzles;

You can try your best to recall that the talent draft after Wall/Bill/PROTONIC is in line. They repeatedly jumped between the last bus of the playoffs and just couldn’t make it into the playoffs. They used the 15th and 9th places one by one to persistently deliver the “four-unlike” front line puzzle for the whole league. If the Wizards don’t overturn them completely, I bet they will still be this story.

If Raptors and Wizards rebuild their sincerity, they should always send some core players away this time and seek a deal to anchor the first round of Gao Shun’s position this year, let them have a good starting point when they enter the so-called “rotten. Because Spurs will hang up all the calls about Wen banyama, and the core of the wasp is younger, it is more likely to leave the list sign or use the list sign to change young stars, then, the direction where raptors and Wizards have the most chance naturally lies in the Pioneers.

We may not see Lillard, Bill and Siakam in the market at the same time, because the pioneers, Raptors and wizards, the royal family of the “want to dismantle and stop” world, maybe there will be a wave of internal digestion:

The Blazers have the 3 signs needed by the Raptors and Wizards;

Raptors and Wizards have the front lines (Sika, OG) and inside lines (Boshen) needed by pioneers.

It is hard to imagine that raptors and Wizards did a reverse recruitment to poach Lillard away. If pioneers introduced Bill group 90 million ultimate Suncha to complete the highest achievement of this track, I can only say that the possibility is not ruled out, but the picture is so beautiful that I dare not look at it. If the transaction takes place between the three teams, the biggest opportunity is that the Blazers absorb the front-court essence of one of the Raptors/Wizards to complete the combination, and then continue to build a team around Lillard. However, regardless of the transaction between Pioneers/Raptors, pioneers/wizards, Lillard will not leave the team, so Bill’s position in the market will be stable.

OK, Bill’s contract is very bad. Why is he so popular in the market?

First of all, there is limited room for selection in the current market.

In the free market, playoff teams generally lack space under the hat, and it was hard to participate in it. Only the Lakers and Kings who gave up multiple Bird rights had the potential to operate under the hat, but it is impossible to directly pay the top salary in the free market.

There are not many top-level backcourt scorers that can be pursued in the free market. In the free market this year, only Owen and Harden were at a higher level than Bill. The demand of the former to leave basketable nets is money, while he can sign the biggest contract if he stays in the Lone Ranger. The situation of the latter is more complicated. It is possible to stay in the team, execute the player options to be traded, jump out of the contract and return to the rocket, and jump out of the contract to seek sign and change.

In fact, there are indeed many teams considering the rumors of Harden, but if Harden is the only big-name scorer in the free market (the next level is Van Flite, Russell, Reeves, and they can’t reach the level of the second starting point), then it is natural that the management of each team pays more attention to the trading market. In addition to Lillard and Bill, the objects they can wait for include:

The bull announced its own explosion, and drozan and Lavin entered the market. Azan’s expired contract with high cost performance will be sought after, but he is older and has poor compatibility without balls. How to renew the contract also has doubts, pursuing his short-term consideration that is more suitable for a season. Lavin’s contract can be better than Bill’s, but Lavin’s expected transaction price will also be higher, but the actual combat power provided may not be. If buyers are patient, they can really wait for the bull’s movement, which will cost some opportunity costs;

Jay Brown’s potential departure. At present, there is no sign that the Green Army will send away Brown, and the Green Army will be more likely to seek an upward transaction, while Brown will ask for a contract with low cost performance for the next family. Brown is not the kind of player who can change the level of the pattern. His contract is just another ghost story after Bill and Lavin.

Horizontal comparison will find that the opportunities for reinforcement in the back court that you can consider will not be perfect. Bill is one of many Imperfect Answers. The biggest advantage of this answer now is that he has a chance to get it and is at a low value.

There are three defects on Bill’s side:

First, the contract is too large. Bill’s salary next season is 46.7 million, and the contract will last until the summer of 2026. There are player options. If executed, the salary for the 26-27 season is 57.1 million;

Second, two nasty additional terms, trading veto, 15% trading margin;

Third, minor injuries and minor illnesses have continued in the past two years. After the scoring season, the total of the two seasons was only fight in a war and 90.

These three defects will make the next family afraid, but it is precisely because of these defects that bill will be “cheap” enough, and then some strange quotation rumors will appear, for example, paul + Samet. In the case that the sun cannot compensate for the first round of signing, what value can these two contracts be processed together?

I don’t believe that wizards are so stupid that they promise such an offer, but some people dare to pass such an offer, which reflects that Bill’s operation to lower the price in the market is a bit rough. The contract signed by the wizard with Bill at that time was indeed “the funeral and humiliation team”, and all possible preferential terms were added to Bill. However, if you think about it carefully, Bill is less than 30 years old and less than 34 years old in the last year of the contract. He is basically at the peak during the contract period. His contract is close to 35% of the salary, it also makes the trading margin look less deadly. The value of this contract actually has a chance to be saved.

Instead of dealing with Bill in a hurry, it is better to wait for the first draft meeting and watch the movements of the Blazers. If the pioneer’s signature No. 3 is sent out, or even in his own hands, then buyers in the market will be more sincere in talking about the fair with Wizards. The chips that current suitors can take out after Bill are probably:

Heat: Deng Luo, Luo Rui/Croal, sign 18, others;

Green Army: several defenders, two, pull three parties;

Warrior: From the perspective of salary structure, the main body is unlikely to be Poole, and it is more likely to be a Thomson + rookie (if this step is taken, the potential transaction scale may be larger, which will be discussed later);

King: Hult and Holmes are the main body, giving up Barnes Bird rights or binding multiple rotations, adding young assets and-or picks;

Sun: Elton is the main body;

Basketable nets: can pose a variety of postures;

Knicks: can pose a variety of postures;

Lake boat: if the chips like Paul and Shamet can be quoted, then the lake boat cannot ask for the price. But at present, there is no saying that they are very interested in bill;

Stag: basically not to start;

76 people: this is not necessary.

Among these pursuers, the most understandable team is the heat. They came to the door of the Championship. Butler was not young and the window was urgent. The heat is still short of a more reliable 3D of the position of the ball-holding player and the big forward, which integrates several functional contracts into Bill, which is slightly close to precision reinforcement.

The second is the Knicks and the King. Their goals are to change the change, one to solve the problem that the main attackers outside the playoff Bronson are not effective, and the other to achieve the upgrade of number 2.

Then there are green army and Warriors. The rationality of the Green Army is more due to the relationship between Bill and Tatum. In the case that one holds the trading veto power and the other is the team leader, if the two have to play together, the other competitors will pull over. The Warrior’s demand is a qualified second main attacker, a player who can take the connecting segment, and Bill can play this role. However, compared with other competitors, the core of Warriors is older. If Warriors really replace Bill with Thomson, it is equal to that they just want to unwrap from a 40 million-year contract and fall into a larger set. This contract has a trading veto, and it is difficult to turn to it in the future.

As for the Sun Chasing Bill, there are some behavioral arts. The intention of basketable nets is that they don’t want to waste the transition period that cannot be broken after Soha. If Simmons can be replaced with a better contract, they are still willing to try.

You also understand why wizards are afraid of Lillard entering the market-the Miami Heat, which ranks first in rationality among suitors, when Lillard appears in the market, they can’t try this side without giving priority-to win the Nuggets, your best way is to own curry or Lillard and go back.

So, how many chips do you need to exchange for Lillard?

Bill Simmons recently gave a trading value of precedence table in his heart. Lillard ranked 25th and the 23rd player was Mitchell. This precedence table is just Bill Simmons’s personal opinion, which has a little reference significance. However, considering the age and the cost performance of the contract, the transaction value of Lillard is slightly lower than Mitchell, which I think is a reasonable expectation. The chips Knight paid in the Mitchell deal last year were:

25, 27, 29 years unprotected first round;

26. The first round of swap rights in 28 years;

Abaki (14th in 22 years), malcanin, Sexton.

3 unprotected first round, 2 first round swap, 1 rookie, 2 available young rotation (MACA was not the current level at that time). So, can the Heat take out this level of chips now?

The answer is, slightly inferior, but close-the heat can give up to three first rounds, three first rounds of exchange, and Croal, Deng Luo and yowich. If it is hot, they can indeed smash Lillard.

Warriors, kings and Knicks will not be interested in Lillard. Sun and lake boats cannot replace Lillard. Green Army and basketable nets are interested and capable, and they are also bill signing buyers in the front row.

What happens on the draft day will have a great impact on the subsequent plot development in summer. How to choose Lillard, the pioneer becomes a buyer or “one sister buys, one has to match”, which determines not only their own future, but also the opportunity of multiple teams, even the competition pattern of next season.

Lillard held back for two summers, and Bill’s boots kept falling. It seems that the pioneers did not send out the situation of Lillard, but objectively speaking, this may be the best opportunity for Lillard to go out of the mountain to compete for the championship. The wizard finally reached the lowest point of Bill’s trading value and put him on the market at the most inappropriate time. I don’t know what they will change back, but they are not able to do it more consistently. They really have to be more determined this time.